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Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria

Received: 26 February 2016     Accepted: 10 March 2016     Published: 29 March 2016
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Abstract

Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.

Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 2)
DOI 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
Page(s) 52-58
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Akaike Information Criterion, AR Model, MA Model, ARMA Model, Forecasting, Rainfall

References
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[4] Nicholson, S. E (1986) Climate variations in the Sahel and other African region during past five centuries. Journal of Arid Environ. Vol 1, pp 3-24.
[5] Chiew, F. H. S., M. J. Stewardson and T. A. McMahon (1993). Comparison of six rainfall-runoff modeling approaches. J. Hydrol., 147: 1-36.
[6] Kuo, J. T. and Y. H. Sun (1993). An intervention model for average 10 day stream flow forecast and synthesis. J. Hydrol., 151: 35-56.
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[8] Goldreich, Y. (1995). Temporal Variations of Rainfall in Isreal. Climate Reseach. 5(2), pp 162-179.
[9] Oduro-Afriyie K. and Adukpo D. C. (2006). Spectral Characteristics of the Annual Mean Rainfall Series in Ghana. West Africa Journal of Applied Ecology 19: 1-9.
[10] Serrano, V. L Mateos and J. A Garcia (1999) Physisc and Chemistry of the earth Part B, Hydrology, oceans and Atmosphere, Vol 24, issues 1-2, pp 85-90.
[11] Olaniran, O. J (2006). Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual series of rainfall of different daily amounts, 1919-1985, Journal of Climate Change, Vol 19, pp 319-341.
[12] Agboola, Tunde and Olurin, T. A (2000). Social Environmental Dimensions of the Changing land cover pattern in Ibadan. A hilly indigeneous African City. Nigerian Journal of Economics and Social Studies. Vol 42, issues 2, pp 384.
[13] National Research Council (2010). America’s Climate Choices. Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change, Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D. C.
[14] Adejuwon, J. O (2011). Rainfall seasonality in Niger Delta Belt, Nigeria, Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 5(2): pp 51-60.
[15] Olumide B. A, Saidu M, Oluwaseun A (2013). Evaluation of Best fit Probability Distribution models for the Prediction of Rainfall and Runoff Volume (Case study Tagwai Dam, Minna, Nigeria). International Journal of Engineering and Technology, U. K. Vol. 3, No 2, pp 94-98, ISSN: 2049-3444.
[16] Oyenuga, I. F, Olajide, J. T & Ayansola, O. A (2013). Comparison of Stochastic Time Series Models on the Climate Change and its Attendant Effect Using Relative Humidity. Paper presented at 1st international conference organized by Civil Engineering Department, The Polytechnic, Ibadan.
[17] Olajide, J. T, Oyenuga, I. F, Ayansola, O. A & Agboluaje, S. A (2013). Modeling of Quarterly Rainfall in Nigeria. Paper presented at 1st international conference organized by Civil Engineering Department, The Polytechnic, Ibadan.
[18] Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control. 3rd Edition, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliff.
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Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide. (2016). Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 4(2), 52-58. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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    ACS Style

    Iyabode Favour Oyenuga; Benjamin Agboola Oyejola; Johnson Taiwo Olajide. Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2016, 4(2), 52-58. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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    AMA Style

    Iyabode Favour Oyenuga, Benjamin Agboola Oyejola, Johnson Taiwo Olajide. Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2016;4(2):52-58. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16

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  • @article{10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16,
      author = {Iyabode Favour Oyenuga and Benjamin Agboola Oyejola and Johnson Taiwo Olajide},
      title = {Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria},
      journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
      volume = {4},
      number = {2},
      pages = {52-58},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20160402.16},
      abstract = {Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.},
     year = {2016}
    }
    

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    T1  - Statistical Modeling of Quarterly Record of Rainfall Distribution in South West Nigeria
    AU  - Iyabode Favour Oyenuga
    AU  - Benjamin Agboola Oyejola
    AU  - Johnson Taiwo Olajide
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
    T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    SP  - 52
    EP  - 58
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2376-9513
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160402.16
    AB  - Modelling distribution of rainfall in South West Nigeria is examined. Quarterly rainfall distribution data of Ibadan as a case study were collected for a period of 43 years (1971-2013) from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NMA) quoted in Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The time series analysis was used to model and forecast the quarterly rainfall. The time plot shows there is a seasonal cycles in the series, we used Akaike Information Criterion to detect auto-regressive (AR), moving average (MA) and auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models of the best order. It was shown that AR(4), MA(4) and ARMA(4,4) have the least Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). These models were then used to forecast for the quarterly rainfall for five years.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 2
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria

  • Department of Statistics, University of Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria

  • Department of Mathematics and Statistics, the Polytechnic, Ibadan, Nigeria

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