| Peer-Reviewed

Statistical Analysis of Pattern on Monthly Reported Road Accidents in Nigeria

Received: 7 June 2016     Accepted: 15 June 2016     Published: 28 June 2016
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Road accidents in Nigeria have always been in the increase. Efforts made by Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) in tackling the menace have not yielded much result. This paper aims to find a suitable time series model to forecast the future characteristics of the road accident data on Oyo-Ibadan express road. The data used for this paper was monthly data collected for a period of Eleven years between 2004-2014. In achieving this, the additive model approach was adopted in the analysis. It includes the estimation of trend, seasonal variation and random variation using moving average method. Autoregressive Moving average model were also fitted to the data and the best order was choosing using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The order = c (1, 1, 2), seasonal = c (1, 1, 2)) gives the best description of the data with minimum (AIC). A forecast based on the model obtained was made by the use of m-step predictor. The time plot plotted shows that the graphs maintain a constant movement from 2004-2008 but increases abnormally in 2010 and later drop again maintaining appreciable downward movement as the year progresses. Judging from the result, accidents and deaths are higher during the festive period months because of the various festivities lined up during this period, which involve much more traveling than usual.

Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11
Page(s) 119-128
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Autoregressive Moving Average, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Road Accident, Trend

References
[1] Onakomaiya, S. O. (1990) Trends in Nigeria Road Safety and Accident Situation: A Paper Presented at a Conference on Accident Control.
[2] Fedearal Road Safety Corp (2010). Report on Road Traffic Crashes (RTC) Involving Buses on Nigerian Roads (2007-2010)
[3] Filani, M. O. and Gbadamosi, K. T. (2007) Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Road Traffic Accident Occurrences in Nigeria: 1970-1995. Nigerian Geographical Journal, Vol. 5, No. 1, Pp. 55-70.
[4] Trinca, G. W. et al (1988) Reducing Traffic Injury; A Global Challenge A. H. Massina and Co. Melbourne.
[5] Fedearal Road Safety Corp (2007). An article on FRSC Establishment Act. www.Frsc.gov.ng
[6] Onakomaiya, S. O. (1988) Unsafe at any Speed: Toward Road Transportation for Survival; Inaugural Lecture, University of Ilorin, Ilorin.
[7] Gbadamosi, K. T. (1994) “Spatial Analysis of Road Accidents in Nigeria, 1970-1990” Unpublished M. Sc. Thesis, Ogun State University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria.
[8] Kual A, Sinha VS, Pathak YK, Singh A, Kopoor AK, Sharma S, Singh S (2005). Fatal Road Traffic Accidents, Study of Distribution, Nature and Type of Injury, JIAFM. 27 (2): 71-78.
[9] Odero W (1998). Alcohol-related road traffic injuries in Eldoret, Kenya, East Afr. Med. J. 75: 70 Obinna, C. (2007) Road Traffic Crashes Kill 0.4 m Youths every year. The Vanguard. April, 24, P. 35.
[10] Jacobs, G. D.; Aaron – Thomas, A; Astrop, A. (2000) Estimating Global Road Facilities. Crow Thorne, U. K. Transport Research Laboratory Report 445. Pp. 1-35.
[11] Adekunle JA (2010). Road Traffic accident deaths and socio-economic development in Nigeria. Int. Rev. Bus. Soc. Sci. 1 (5): 47-60.
[12] Pratte D (1998). Road to Ruin: Road Traffic Accidents in the Developing World. NEXUS, 13: 46-62.
[13] World Bank (2004): Development Practice: Sustainable Transport Priorities for Policy Reform Chapter 3, Washington D. C.
[14] Agbonkhese, O, Yisa, G. L., Agbonkhese, E. G, Akanbi, D. O, Aka, E. O, and Mondigba, E (2013). Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria: Causes and Preventive Measure. Civil and Environmental Research, 3 (13): 90-99.
[15] Suleiman, I. L., (2011). Road Development and the Development of Katsina State, Katsina, (JORIND), 9 (1), 401 – 410.
[16] Charles, O. B., Olafunmilayo, I. F., Afolabi, E. B., Lola, V. A, Ronke, A and Aderonke, M. B., (2007). Risk factors for road traffic accidents among drivers of public institutions in Ibadan, Nigeria. African Journal of Health Sciences, 14 (3-4): 136-142.
[17] Aderamo, A. J., (2012). Spatial Pattern of Road Traffic Accident Casualties in Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3 (2): 61 – 72.
[18] Omidiji, A. A and Ibitoye, S. A, (2010). Crime and road crashes prevention in public transportation system in Nigeria: the case study of Kwara, Kogi and Ekiti states. 24th ARRB Conference-Building on 50 Years of Road and Transport Research, Melbourne Australia.
[19] Atubi, A. O, (2012). A Monthly Analysis of road Traffic Accident in Selected Local Government Areas of Lagos state, Nigeria. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 3 (11): 47-62
[20] Salako R. J, Adegoke B. O and Akanmu T. A (2014). Time Series Analysis for modeling detecting Seasonality pattern of autocrash cases recorded at FRSC, Osogbo, Osun State. International Journal of Engineering and Adv. Technology Studies. Vol. 2 (4), pp 25-34, December 2014.
[21] Ndefo O., (2012). Causes of Highway Failure in Nigeria. International Journal of Engineering and Technology, 4 (11): 4695-4704.
[22] Eze, B.(2012). Road Traffic Accidents in Nigeria. A Public Health Problem. Afrimedic Journal, 3 (2), 35-36
[23] Akaike, H. 1974. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control AC 19: 716-723.
[24] Akaike, H. 1978. A Bayesian analysis of the minimum AIC procedure. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math 30 A: 9-14.
[25] Spiegel M. R, Stephens L. J (1999), Theory and Problems of Statistics (Third edition)
[26] Box George and Jenkins, Gwilyn (1976), Times Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, San Francisco.
[27] Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M. and Reinsel, G. C. 1994: Time Series Analysis, Fore- casting and Control, 3rd ed., Prentice Hall, Englewood Clifs.
[28] BrockWell, P. J. and Davis, R. A. 2002: Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, 2nd. ed., Springer, Verlag.
[29] Chatfield (1987), The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction. London Chapman and Hall (Third Edition)
[30] McCleary, R. and Hay, R. A., Jr (1980). Applied Time Series Analysis for the Social Sciences, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Oyenuga Iyabode Favour, Ayoola Femi Joshua, Shittu Olanrewaju Ismail. (2016). Statistical Analysis of Pattern on Monthly Reported Road Accidents in Nigeria. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 4(4), 119-128. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Oyenuga Iyabode Favour; Ayoola Femi Joshua; Shittu Olanrewaju Ismail. Statistical Analysis of Pattern on Monthly Reported Road Accidents in Nigeria. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2016, 4(4), 119-128. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Oyenuga Iyabode Favour, Ayoola Femi Joshua, Shittu Olanrewaju Ismail. Statistical Analysis of Pattern on Monthly Reported Road Accidents in Nigeria. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2016;4(4):119-128. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11,
      author = {Oyenuga Iyabode Favour and Ayoola Femi Joshua and Shittu Olanrewaju Ismail},
      title = {Statistical Analysis of Pattern on Monthly Reported Road Accidents in Nigeria},
      journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
      volume = {4},
      number = {4},
      pages = {119-128},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20160404.11},
      abstract = {Road accidents in Nigeria have always been in the increase. Efforts made by Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) in tackling the menace have not yielded much result. This paper aims to find a suitable time series model to forecast the future characteristics of the road accident data on Oyo-Ibadan express road. The data used for this paper was monthly data collected for a period of Eleven years between 2004-2014. In achieving this, the additive model approach was adopted in the analysis. It includes the estimation of trend, seasonal variation and random variation using moving average method. Autoregressive Moving average model were also fitted to the data and the best order was choosing using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The order = c (1, 1, 2), seasonal = c (1, 1, 2)) gives the best description of the data with minimum (AIC). A forecast based on the model obtained was made by the use of m-step predictor. The time plot plotted shows that the graphs maintain a constant movement from 2004-2008 but increases abnormally in 2010 and later drop again maintaining appreciable downward movement as the year progresses. Judging from the result, accidents and deaths are higher during the festive period months because of the various festivities lined up during this period, which involve much more traveling than usual.},
     year = {2016}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Statistical Analysis of Pattern on Monthly Reported Road Accidents in Nigeria
    AU  - Oyenuga Iyabode Favour
    AU  - Ayoola Femi Joshua
    AU  - Shittu Olanrewaju Ismail
    Y1  - 2016/06/28
    PY  - 2016
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11
    T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    SP  - 119
    EP  - 128
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2376-9513
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20160404.11
    AB  - Road accidents in Nigeria have always been in the increase. Efforts made by Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC) in tackling the menace have not yielded much result. This paper aims to find a suitable time series model to forecast the future characteristics of the road accident data on Oyo-Ibadan express road. The data used for this paper was monthly data collected for a period of Eleven years between 2004-2014. In achieving this, the additive model approach was adopted in the analysis. It includes the estimation of trend, seasonal variation and random variation using moving average method. Autoregressive Moving average model were also fitted to the data and the best order was choosing using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). The order = c (1, 1, 2), seasonal = c (1, 1, 2)) gives the best description of the data with minimum (AIC). A forecast based on the model obtained was made by the use of m-step predictor. The time plot plotted shows that the graphs maintain a constant movement from 2004-2008 but increases abnormally in 2010 and later drop again maintaining appreciable downward movement as the year progresses. Judging from the result, accidents and deaths are higher during the festive period months because of the various festivities lined up during this period, which involve much more traveling than usual.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The Polytechnic, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

  • Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

  • Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria

  • Sections