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Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests

Received: 20 November 2020     Accepted: 22 June 2021     Published: 2 December 2021
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Abstract

The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.

Published in Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Volume 9, Issue 6)
DOI 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
Page(s) 133-140
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Migration, Mann-Kendall, Trend Analysis, Sen’s Slope

References
[1] Blain, G. C, (2013). The Mann-Kendall test: the need to consider the interaction between serial correlation and trend. Acta Scientiarum. Agronomy, 35 (4), pp. 393-402.
[2] Bloch, A. (2006). Emigration from Zimbabwe: Migrant Perspectives Social Policy & Administration 40 (1): 67-87.
[3] Chikanda, A. (2004). The emigration potential of skilled Zimbabwean: Perceptions, current migration patterns, trends and policy responses. Unpublished Master’s thesis, University of Zimbabwe.
[4] Chikanda, A. (2007). Skilled Health Professionals’ Migration and Its Impact on Health Delivery in Zimbabwe, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 32 (4): 667-80.
[5] Chikanda, A. (2008). The Migration of Health Professionals from Zimbabwe, In J. Connell (ed) The International Migration of Health Workers, (New York and London: Routledge), pp. 110-28.
[6] Chikanda, A. (2011). The Engagement of the Zimbabwean Medical Diaspora, SAMP Policy Series No. 55, Cape Town.
[7] Crush, J., & Tawodzera, G. (2016). Migration and Food Security: Zimbabwean Migrants in Urban South Africa. AFSUN Food Security Series, (23).
[8] Drápel, K., and Drápelová, I. (2011). Application of Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimates for trend detection in deposition data from Bílý Kříž (Beskydy Mts., the Czech Republic) 1997–2010. Beskydy, 4 (2): 133–146.
[9] Gavrilov, M. B., Tošić, I., Marković, S. B., Unkašević, M., Petrović, P. (2016). Analysis of annual and seasonal temperature trends using the Mann-Kendall test in Vojvodina, Serbia, Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 120 (2), pp. 183–198.
[10] Kendall, M. G., (1975). Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London.
[11] Luo, Y., Liu, S., Fu, S. F., Liu, J., Wang, G., Zhou, G. (2008). Trends of precipitation in Beijiang River Basin, Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Processes, 22: 2377–2386.
[12] Makoni, T., Murwendo, T. D., Mawonike, R., Chipumuro, M. (2019). Modelling and forecasting Zimbabwe’s immigrants using SARIMA models. African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, Volume 8 (1), pp. 1-8.
[13] Mann, H. B., (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13, 245–259.
[14] Mondal, A., Kundu, S., Mukhopadhyay, A. (2012). Rainfall trend analysis by mann-Kendall test: a case study of North-Eastern part of Cuttack District, Orissa. International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental Sciences ISSN: 2277-2081.
[15] OECD (2004). Trends In International Migration: Sopemi 2003 Edition – ISBN 92-64-01944-8.
[16] Onoz, B. and Bayazit, M., (2003). The Power of Statistical Tests for Trend Detection. Turkish J. Engineer. Environ. Sci. 27, 247–251.
[17] Pohlert, T. (2018). Non-Parametric Trend Tests and Change-Point Detection. Accessed online on the website: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/
[18] Salmi, T., Maata, A., Antilla, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., Amnell, T. (2002). Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates – the Excel template application Makesens. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 35 pp.
[19] Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63: 1379–1389.
[20] Shahid, S. (2011). Trends in extreme rainfall events of Bangladesh. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104: 489–499.
[21] Tevera, D. S., and Crush, J. (2003). The new brain drain from Zimbabwe. Southern African Migration Project (SAMP).
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[23] Xu, Z., Liu, Z., Fu, G., Chen, Y. (2010). Trends of major hydro climatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years. J Arid Environ, 74 (2): 256–267.
[24] Yadav, R., Tripathi, S. K., Pranuthi, G., Dubey, S. K (2014). Trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test for precipitation and temperature for thirteen districts of Uttarakhand, 164 Trend analysis for precipitation and temperature in Uttarakhand. Journal of Agrometeorology 16 (2): 164-171.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo. (2021). Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 9(6), 133-140. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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    ACS Style

    Romeo Mawonike; Musara Chipumuro; Tendai Makoni; Talent David Murwendo. Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Sci. J. Appl. Math. Stat. 2021, 9(6), 133-140. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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    AMA Style

    Romeo Mawonike, Musara Chipumuro, Tendai Makoni, Talent David Murwendo. Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests. Sci J Appl Math Stat. 2021;9(6):133-140. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11,
      author = {Romeo Mawonike and Musara Chipumuro and Tendai Makoni and Talent David Murwendo},
      title = {Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests},
      journal = {Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics},
      volume = {9},
      number = {6},
      pages = {133-140},
      doi = {10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.sjams.20210906.11},
      abstract = {The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Analysis of Migration Trends in Zimbabwe Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Tests
    AU  - Romeo Mawonike
    AU  - Musara Chipumuro
    AU  - Tendai Makoni
    AU  - Talent David Murwendo
    Y1  - 2021/12/02
    PY  - 2021
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
    T2  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JF  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    JO  - Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    SP  - 133
    EP  - 140
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2376-9513
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.sjams.20210906.11
    AB  - The movement of people into and out of the Zimbabwean borders has become a topical issue in every sector of the country. The main devastating movement is when a lot of skilled professionals leave the country to other countries in search of greener pastures without ploughing back home and left the country of origin with few or no skilled personnel to drive the economy forward. Zimbabwe is one of the developing countries that have suffered the “brain drain” for the past decades and currently there seem no solution to stop this emigration. There is no equal balance between immigrants and emigrants. In this paper, we investigate the trend analysis of Zimbabwe migration using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test. We find Mann-Kendall Test imperative in the analysis of trends of migration since it most requires data which is not normally distributed and data which contains extreme values which are difficult to handle using parametric test. Firstly, we investigate the direction of the trend and then its magnitude in terms of slope. Results show that there is a significant increase in the number of migrants going out of Zimbabwe to other countries over past two decades. This is indicated by high positive magnitudes in trend or the Sen’s estimator. On the other hand, there is insignificant trend of inflows from other countries into Zimbabwe over a decade from February to December, except in every January.
    VL  - 9
    IS  - 6
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

  • Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

  • Department of Physics, Geography and Environmental Science, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

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